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December 13, 2024
NSSF Government Relations Team Forecasts What’s Ahead for Industry in 2025
Washington, D.C., is buzzing with the reality setting in that in a couple weeks, 2025 will look much different than the previous four years. President-elect Donald Trump is returning to The White House for a second term.
That’s a positive enough development for the firearm and ammunition industry following four years during which the Biden-Harris administration, which deemed the firearm industry “the enemy” in 2019, used every tool in the shed to attack and suffocate the lawful firearm industry with their whole-of-government approach. That included its “zero tolerance” policy to punish federal firearms licensees (FFLs), implementing punishing executive actions and repeating calls for more gun control restrictions on law-abiding Americans in the wake of horrendous tragedies caused by criminals.
Now, a president is returning to 1600 Pennsylvania who has vowed again to protect Second Amendment rights and respect the Constitution. But in addition to the sea change in Washington, D.C., election day brought some welcomed changes in state capitols that are positive developments for the firearm industry, suggesting punishing gun control legislation may have a tougher time becoming law.
NSSF’s Government Relations Team, led by Jake McGuigan, Managing Director, Government Relations – State Affairs, Diane Cihota, Senior Director, Government Relations – Federal Affairs and Patrick Rothwell, Vice President, Government Relations gave industry members a detailed webinar presentation of what the political landscape will look like over the next two years and answered questions about how all of this will impact the firearm and ammunition industry.
NSSF’s Larry Keane reminded those listening of the impact that NSSF had in the November elections. Keane reiterated the record-breaking achievements of NSSF’s #GUNVOTE voter education program to get gun owners educated on when, where and how to vote at their local polling places. Keane also explained the impact of NSSF’s Political Action Committee (PAC), which exceeded $1 million raised and contributed over the 2024 election cycle to elect lawmakers to the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate who are dedicated to protecting the firearm and ammunition industry. New this election cycle, Protect Liberty PAC was active in several key Senate races with election ads featuring Steve Hornady.
In The States
McGuigan leads the state team which fights for industry priorities in state capitols from coast to coast and provided a detailed assessment of how the political landscape changed as a result of the Nov. 5 elections. While there were a few exceptions to the rule, McGuigan tempered expectations.
“Incumbents are tough to beat and most things generally stay the same,” McGuigan explained. “So if we take a look at how much change occurred in this election at the state level, well – it’s not much.”
McGuigan explained prior to 2024 Republicans nationwide held 55 percent of all state-level legislative seats. After the election, that number ticked up to 55.25 percent. “Obviously, we didn’t’ see too many changes, overall,” McGuigan added. There were, or course, a few exceptions that he detailed.
One of the biggest developments occurred in Michigan. In 2022, Democrats won sizeable majorities in both the state House of Representatives and Senate, giving Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer a trifecta and marking the first time a single party controlled all state government in 40 years. For the final two years as governor, though, she’ll be severely hampered in pushing through even more gun control because Republicans flipped at least four seats on Election Day and retook the House majority.
In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has spent his first term with a Democratic-controlled state legislature, both in the General Assembly and the Senate. Democrats were salivating over the prospects of winning veto-proof supermajorities on Election Day but that failed to come to fruition. Republicans prevented supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature after winning 15 seats in the 42-member Assembly, a gain of one seat, and eight seats in the 21-member state Senate.
In a critical development in Minnesota, Republicans flipped just enough legislative seats to draw even with the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party and split the Minnesota House of Representatives evenly, ending the DFL’s trifecta control as DFL Gov. Tim Walz returns to the Governor’s Mansion after losing his White House bid with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Remaining today, 23 states have Republican trifecta control of the governor’s mansion and each chamber of the legislature. On the other hand, Democrats can claim 17 trifecta after the election. There are 10 states with divided government.
McGuigan wrapped up by reminding industry leaders that while several Blue state governors have already vowed to “Trump proof” their states with severe gun control, that was already expected. But the pro-industry gains in those handful of other states was an outsized positive development.
Inside the Beltway
Back in Washington, not only will President-elect Trump return as a pro-industry, pro-Second Amendment advocate in The White House, but several developments on Capitol Hill provide more good news for industry leaders and gun rights supporters. NSSF’s Diane Cihota, Senior Director, Government Relations – Federal Affairs and Patrick Rothwell, Vice President, Government Relations spoke to industry leaders what they can expect from the halls of Congress in 2025.
The biggest development is that pro-industry Republicans won back the majority in the U.S. Senate, a welcomed change from the past years under Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Now in the years ahead, incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) will be an industry ally leading a 53-47 Republican Senate Majority. Leader Thune received an A+ in NSSF’s 2024 Congressional report card and has a strong record on Second Amendment issues.
In addition to the new pro-industry leader taking over, a much-needed change will also occur because the Republican majority will now take over the gavels on important Senate committees, meaning no more gun control theatrics in hearings as has been far too common over the past several years, as well as industry priorities will have a much greater chance of moving forward toward passage.
Across the U.S. Capitol in the House, Republicans retained a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Most of the previous House leadership will likely return to their posts once the new 119th Congressional session begins, however U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), the Republican Conference Chair, was nominated by President-elect Trump to be his Ambassador to the United Nations. That means Republicans elected Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) to assume the Number 4 leadership post.
The firearm and ammunition industry has received a shot in the arm after years of aggressive and combative gun control coming from activists in Washington, D.C. The new Congress, beginning in 2025, means industry priorities will be reintroduced and receive ample attention with a president openly willing to help and support the Second Amendment. Law-abiding Americans of all stripes and backgrounds can join in that celebration.
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